Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Jerry

A large swirl of clouds over the Bahamas, across the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico warrants a close watch over the next few days. A tropical wave to the east of Florida is interacting with an upper level low just west of Tampa. Late Tuesday night there is not a whole of organization but that could change. Forecast models push the upper level low to the west to a position south of Louisiana late Friday. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states is feeding dry air into the south. I am expecting this high to hold its position and steer the low across the gulf. Dry air over the state looks to hold through Friday. Typically, tropical development does not occur when an upper level low is in place...winds are too strong aloft and the air too cool. Will be watching, keep checking back.

Posted at 6:57 PM

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