I was going to issue my forecast/expectations for the hurricane season today to coincide with the start of the 2007 season. But if the National Hurricane Center is going to put names on storms with the likes of Andrea and Barry we will have no problem attaining their forecast of 17 named storms.

I was baffled that Andrea was given storm status. By the time the NHC named the storm the storm was on the down turn. High surf the previous 2 days was worse before the storm was given a name. Should not have been named.

Now Barry, no organization and just an area of heavy rain. Wind shear is very strong over the storm as an unseasonably strong trof approaches the storm. This is just a rainstorm with no tropical characteristics. Should not be named.

In my opinion, the Hurricane Center seems to name the storm if it is going to have an affect on land. While that may heighten interest/awareness in the storm. Scientifically speaking it is not right. So the score is NHC-2 and David-0. No storms should have been named yet!

Anyway here is my outlook for the season. I do concur that the season will be more active than last year. I am looking for an average to slightly above average season with about 12-14 named storms. Of course the more important question is where will these storm go. At this time a large and persistent area of high pressure could dominate the southeastern states. This could offer the gulf coast protection from tropical activity. The high could steer storms across the southern gulf towards south Texas or Mexico or even keep them in the Atlantic east of the U.S. (This same high is why I am forecasting a hot and dry summer...see my earlier blog..)

In any event you can count on Me, kn and Jennifer to keep you updated with the very latest information.