I am still watching the eastern Gulf of Mexico and there is still
nothing tropical. The Hurricane Center is reporting conditions are
favorable for a subtropical or tropical storm to form "at any time". I
am seeing a very disorganized system with little organization at all.
Further, very dry air is sitting just to the west of the upper level
low. Should this get sucked into the circulation this system could fall
apart very quickly. Thunderstorms have increased tonight northeast of
the center but that is over land and could have to do with daytime
heating. I am still expecting a disorganized system Friday that will be
inching closer to the northern gulf coast. Heavy rain looks like a
pretty good bet starting late Friday for the Destin area and then west
of there Friday night. It is still uncertain how much rain will make it
inland over the weekend. With dry air close by the system could bring
heavy rain to the coast with lighter showers in interior sections of
the gulf coast. Stay tuned, there are still some question marks on how much rain.
It does look like this system will style="font-weight:bold;">not develop quickly or get
too strong.