Tuesday night's (1/29/08) strong winds were caused by a pressure gradient. A large and or rapid change of atmospheric pressure across a point (central Mississippi). After the storms moved to the east of the area (low pressure) a very strong cold front swept across the area followed by a large and strong area of high pressure. The large difference in pressure from low to high across the region caused very strong wind gusts from 30-45mph. Yes those are strong winds but not usually strong enough to create numerous power outages. I am wondering if the strong winds that affected most of the region we able to knock down some trees and limbs was because of weakened and dead wood in the wake of Katrina. It is just a thought.

This week will be active weather wise. 2 fronts will bring rain chances. The first will be Tuesday afternoon as a fast moving cold front sweeps across the south. This front will be preceded with strong and gusty winds followed by a line of downpours as the front moves through. I am expecting the heavier rain and possible downpours to move through quickly in the mid to late afternoon. The severe threat looks to be small at this time. I am expecting the storm's best energy to be off to our north. A quick shot of cold air will follow the front on Wednesday with yet another weather system due in on Thursday. Thursday's weather maker will be a longer lasting rain as the storm center with this front looks like it will move across north Mississippi. Anytime a strong storm center moves across the area you have to ask, "what about severe weather?" Since cold stable air will be over the region there probably will not be enough time for the atmosphere to turn around and be primed for severe weather. It looks like more of a widespread rain. Coastal Mississippi and south Alabama seem to have the best chance for severe storms with Thursday's storm front. As always, it will depend on the storm track so stay tune. We will see another quick shot of chilly air on Friday.

Temperatures nudged just above freezing this afternoon and it looks like the temperatures will hover just above freezing tonight around Jackson. The 32 degree line or freezing line looks like it will stretch from Rolling Fork to near Yazoo City over to Ackerman and then on to near Columbus. North of this line icing could cause problems on bridges with some glazing on trees and power lines.

Cold and dry air that moved in Thursday was battling warmer air coming into the region at cloud level all day. The warmer air is winning the battle because there is nothing keeping the cold air in place so temperatures have slowly moderated. This has kept the temperature from falling this evening. I will not rule out some patchy ice in the trees in some out lying areas north of Jackson but major icing is not likely. But if you up highway 49 in the south Delta near Belzoni and over to Lexington and near Kosciusko be careful.

Warmer weather returns for the weekend. It has been a long time since we have had an ice storm around the Jackson area. It looks like we will have to wait a while longer.

Friday morning temperatures are hovering around freezing and a little moisture has moved far enough to the east that there will be a period or two of sleet from about Jackson and to the north. While no major accumulations are expected on roads or the ground, BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME A LITTLE ICY UNTIL THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP. Up until about 10 or 11AM watch those elevated bridges! To the south, it looks like a mixture of rain and sleet and temps are just above freezing. Even in the south play it safe and watch the bridges.

The main batch of moisture is still expected later. The delta and north Mississippi look particularly prone to some icing tonight. Check back, I will keep you up to date.

DAVID

A little weather lesson for you. Evaporation is a cooling process. You
feel cool when you get out of the shower because the water is
evaporating from your skin. When rain falls into very dry air, the
water evaporates cooling the surrounding air. That's how you can see
sleet or snow when the temperature is above freezing.

Tonight,
cold and very dry air is moving into the state while at the same time
another weather system is pushing into Texas. This batch of moisture
will approach our area late in the day Friday and Friday evening. As
the rain falls into the dry air there could be enough cooling for
sleet. Sleet is frozen rain drops. Rain that falls into a cold layer
and freezes the drop. It looks like the rain or rain and sleet mixture
will be light. I am also expecting temperatures to be above freezing as
all this occurs. Bottom line, this does not look like it will be a
major winter storm and there should not be any accumulations. Therefore no BIG problems.

In
north Mississippi there could be enough cooling that some bridges could
become slick but there is still the question if the precipitation will
be heavy enough. It could very well be too light. This area would
generally be in the south Delta over to Greenwood and to the north
Check batch, I am watching this very closely for any changes.

I am expecting our 2 week cold snap to come to an end this weekend. A big weather pattern change will begin to evolve by late this week as the jet stream begins to migrate back to the north taking most of the cold air with it. Highs this weekend will recover to the 60s to near 70!

There are signs that by the end of the month and the start of February that it might be chilly agian.

The snow is melting fast around Jackson where it stuck on the grass now that the snow has ended. Accumulating snow is now over in south Mississippi where 1-2" fell between Natchez and Brookaven and a little more east of there. Florence had 1/2" with Magee picking up 1".

While I was not surprised to see the little bit of snow around Jackson the snow in south Mississippi is a shocker. Even late Friday night it did not look like it would be cold enough for snow down there. A pretty snow with temperatures just above freezing.

I must say there was 1 computer model that indicated that it would snow south of here. It just did not look like the cold air would arrive in time. SURPRISE SURPRISE!

Cold air has penetrated further into south Mississippi than expected and it is snowing hard! Several inches of snow are likely with a dusting on grassy area across the metro area!

Well, it has been a few years, but there is a little snow at my house. Rather large flakes and there still seems to be a little rain too. At 4:45AM it is 34 degrees here. I just woke the kids, they staggered to the door and went back to sleep. Seem like a few years ago we'd be outside jumping up and down. But after all, they are all teenagers now.

It looks like the forecast is going as planned. As it gets colder drier air is moving in and any snow or sleet will be pretty light. A few spots may see a little white on the grass or on roof tops.

A storm center in the Gulf of Mexico and the arrival of cold air from the north are making for an interesting forecast. It looks like there could be some significant snow accumulations to our east in Alabama and Georgia on Saturday.

Even with temperatures above freezing this evening, I had several reports of sleet, north of Jackson. While it may seem strange, this is not unusual. Dry air about 10,000 feet above the ground is responsible for the sleet. As the rain falls into the dry air, the air cools to freezing because of the rain evaporating. This cold layer of air freezes the rain drops as it falls through the old layer. Once the initial cooling takes place the air warms and the precipitation turns to all rain. The evening is not the hard part of the forecast, early Saturday morning is.

The storm center is in a perfect place for a southern snowstorm. Down in the Gulf of Mexico. Problem is, we do not have cold enough air this evening. As the storm moves to the Florida panhandle Saturday morning we will be on the back edge of the rain. At that time, the air could get cold enough for a brief change over to snow. Unfortunately for snow lovers we look to get very little snow here. Worst case scenario would be a little dusting on the grass...probably for areas north and east of Jackson. Even at that, I am expecting temperatures in the morning to be above freezing so there should not be any travel problems.

Atlanta could see snow but even there there is a chance most of the moisture could pass to the south.

By the way, the last time we had an accumulating snow here in Jackson was December 31, 2000!

The current weather pattern is favorable for snow or ice in the South. Unfortunately for Mississippi snow lovers we were short on cold air today. Snow is falling this evening across northern Georgia, northern Alabama and the western Carolinas where several inches of accumulation are possible.


A
cold weather pattern continues and looks to last for a while longer. A
strong blast of cold air will arrive fro this weekend with lows
dropping to near 20. If it is going to snow in the South this is
exactly the pattern that is needed. Cold air in place, northwest flow
to keep the cold air here and an active subtropical jet stream that
moves storms along the gulf coast. Right now though the air is just a
little to mild for wintry weather here. On Friday night as the cold air
moves in there is a very small chance we could see some snow flurries
if the cold air gets here before the rain end. Nothing big though is on
the way for the snow lovers here in the state.

Several rotating super cells moved into central Mississippi today with the worst storm moving from western Yazoo county all the way to Lowndes county on the Alabama border northeast of Columbus. Along the storm's path there were numerous reports of a tornado with damage and injuries from Pickens/Goodman to McCool, across Choctaw county and then in Caledonia. This cell has a path length of at least 100 miles. In looking at the damage in Caledonia with cars tossed about and damage to a school gymnasium I'd say at least EF3 damage with winds possibly over 150mph! Near Goodman, storm damage is consistent with perhaps an EF2 tornado with winds 110-130mph. Fortunately there were great warnings and the storm was over rural areas for much of the time. Injuries were minimal and no deaths reported so far. There is no doubt about it. That storm up there was one of the worst I've seen in my 22 years of forecasting weather here in Mississippi.

The National Weather Service will conduct an "official evaluation" of the storm damage on Friday.

I've been off for the holidays and really enjoyed my time with my family.

Another round of stormy weather is due in Thursday. After that...COLDER. The La Nina (cooler than average Pacific Ocean water)weather pattern continues. Typically in a La Nina year our weather is active December-January and then quiets down for our typical severe season in the spring. We'll see. But the last La Nina pattern in the late 90s was exactly like our current weather.

Thursdays front looks like it could be a wind producer with some heavy rains. Pin point the exact area of bad weather is a little tough as several weather elements will be coming together over Mississippi in Alabama. It is possible the front will strengthen after it pass our area.

In any event this front is a weather pattern changer and cold/cool air should dominate our weather pattern over the next 2 weeks.