Yes the tropics remain active but fortunately there is no threat to our area. The tropical depression in the southwest Gulf of MExico is doing a repeat of Humberto from several weeks ago. It has gone from a depression to a hurricane in less than 12 hours. Humberto set the record for the fastest developing hurricane and Lorenzo is right in there. The storm will make landfall Friday in the state of Veracruz in eastern Mexico.

Karen remains in the central Atlantic and is weakening for now. Over the next 3 days condtions are not favorable for strengthening. If Karen can survive the weeknd there is a slight chance the storm could threaten the east coast of the U.S. late next week. Key phrase...very slight chance.

Enjoy the fall air that is moving into the region. the weather this weekend promises to be spectacular!

DAVID

Late Tuesday afternoon a tropical depression has formed in the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. A trough of low pressure extends through the
central gulf with clouds and showers into the lower Mississippi River
Valley. This trough will pass the the north of the depression leaving
the depression in the southwestern Gulf. I do see any reason to be
concerned about this system at all. It should remain stationary or drift westward towards the Mexican Coast.

Tropical Storm Karen in in the central
Atlantic and will not be a threat to the U.S. In 2 days time Karen will
encounter very strong southwesterly winds and this will turn the storm
away from the U.S. coast.

Other areas of showers and storms are
around as well. I am watching but don't see any threat to our area now
or in the near future.


DAVID

The low in the Gulf of Mexico has finally attained "tropical depression" status...barely. This system remains very poorly organized and the depression should have minimal effects on the central gulf coastline. Hurricane Hunters were only able to find 30-35 mile per hour winds with the depression which is located about near Pensacola in the western Florida panhandle Friday evening. In fact, it looks to me like the northern part of the circulation may be on shore. Further, dry air has entered the western portion of the depression and for these two reasons I am not expecting any significant strenghtening tonight or Saturday morning. The radar presentation only indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast of the center over south Georgia.

As far as the effects on our weather? To be honest with you, that question is still up in the air. With such a weak circulation around the depression downpours will have a very hard time moving inland Saturday. Right now the best chances for heavy showers will be to the southeast of Hattiesburg. There will be the chance for showers south of I-20 Saturday afternoon but right now the rain does not look like it will be that heavy and the overall coverage will be small. Bottom line, some passing showers for the WAPT area Saturday afternoon into the evening.

Concerning winds...this does not look to be a factor the the WAPT area.


DAVID

I am still watching the eastern Gulf of Mexico and there is still
nothing tropical. The Hurricane Center is reporting conditions are
favorable for a subtropical or tropical storm to form "at any time". I
am seeing a very disorganized system with little organization at all.
Further, very dry air is sitting just to the west of the upper level
low. Should this get sucked into the circulation this system could fall
apart very quickly. Thunderstorms have increased tonight northeast of
the center but that is over land and could have to do with daytime
heating. I am still expecting a disorganized system Friday that will be
inching closer to the northern gulf coast. Heavy rain looks like a
pretty good bet starting late Friday for the Destin area and then west
of there Friday night. It is still uncertain how much rain will make it
inland over the weekend. With dry air close by the system could bring
heavy rain to the coast with lighter showers in interior sections of
the gulf coast. Stay tuned, there are still some question marks on how much rain.
It does look like this system will style="font-weight:bold;">not develop quickly or get
too strong.

Nothing has changed from my previous blog. The storm is still disorganized and is not showing any signs of development...yet anyway. Keep in mind, when you are looking at an upper level weather feature controlling the weather, surface development is typically slow to occur. In any event the weather system will continue to be slowly drifting to the west and be over the eastern Gulf late Thursday or Thursday night. I would expect a west to northwest drift of the low to continue into Saturday putting the system up off the central gulf coast by the weekend. I will not rule out some increased rain chances for us over the weekend but it does not appear that this will be a major weather system. Will it become a tropical storm? Hard to say but a weak tropcial storm might be the worst case scenario at this time.

A large swirl of clouds over the Bahamas, across the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico warrants a close watch over the next few days. A tropical wave to the east of Florida is interacting with an upper level low just west of Tampa. Late Tuesday night there is not a whole of organization but that could change. Forecast models push the upper level low to the west to a position south of Louisiana late Friday. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states is feeding dry air into the south. I am expecting this high to hold its position and steer the low across the gulf. Dry air over the state looks to hold through Friday. Typically, tropical development does not occur when an upper level low is in place...winds are too strong aloft and the air too cool. Will be watching, keep checking back.

Ah! Lower temperatures! As is typical each year the heat and humidity seem to break about the 2nd
or 3rd week of September. True, we will see more hot days and high
humidity but even those sort of days are numbered. Drier airusually
shows up at this time and can produce very comfortable weather.
Especially when we get into October. I really enjoy the morning and
evening this time of the year.

As I look ahead to next week I
am expecting temperatures to be a little above average. Meaning highs
in the upper 80s instead of thetypical low to mid 80s for late
September. Just remember the cool nights a just a teaser for now....but
before long the hot weather will be gone.

Tuesday Evening September 11th. Northerly winds have kicked in and "cooler" air is moving southward. Highs today in north Mississippi were in the 70s and lower 80s. Now that is nice! From Vicksburg to Jackson to Meridian and to the south highs today were still in the 90s. ARGH! But never fear highs the next couple of days will be in the middle 80s. The lowest they have been since back in May. Some showers are in the forecast over the next couple of days with Thursday looking to have the best coverage.

I am still expecting cool front #2 by this weekend. Temps will be comfortable.

DAVID

2 fronts are in the forecast for the upcoming week. The first front will slide into the state by Tuesday. The added cloud cover and rain showers will lower highs into the middle and upper 80s for most of the week. Lows will still be near 70 and the humidity looks to remain high. A second cool front looks much stronger for the end of the week. Now you have to be careful when talking about cold front in Mississippi the early in September because the days of highs in the 70s are still way down the road. Anyway, the second front will push through with drier air and this will lower overnight lows into the 60-65 range with highs in the upper 80s. Very nice September and football weather here in the South.

A couple general rules I go by. You typically look for the first fall fronts around the 15-22 of September. Days are still hot into October but nights and mornings can turn more pleasant. By about October 8-14 you begins to see the "cooler" fall air.

For the first time since the National Hurricane Center began keeping track in 1949, two hurricanes have made landfall on the same day. Felix struck Central America early today while Pacific hurricane Henriette struck the southern tip of Baja this afternoon.

Also, for the first time two Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the same year. Dean and Felix.

Interesting facts and noteworthy but becareful to relate such facts to global warming theories.