Dry weather will continue for November in Mississippi with areas east of Mississippi seeing the drought worsening. Bad news for north Alabama, north Georgia and Tennessee. Temperature wise, I am expecting a cool first half of the month and temperatures should be below average for the month even with some warmer weather towards Thanksgiving. While cool by day and cold at night the dry spell will mean many nice days for the month.

I remember it well. It was 14 years ago and the date was October 31, 1993. And it was a major SHIVER ME TIMBERS COLD! My oldest daughter, Allison was 4 (she's 18 now!), Andrew was almost 2 and my baby Audrey was only a few months old. Back then, my wife Diane, some how made time to make their Halloween costumes. I even remember the year Allison was dressed up like a "Candy Corn". 1993 was no different the costumes were made and the kids were excited. The problem was a major cold front had passed through 2 days before and it was wicked cold. The high on the 30th was only 46 with a low of 29. All my wife's work and no one would see their costumes. It was too cold! In fact as I remember it, we drove the kids from house to house and had them all bundled up. JUmped out, ran to the door and then ran back to the car. It was a cold and windy night...the coldest ever for a Halloween in these parts. High that Halloween... 43 (coldest high on record) and low 26 (a record too).

So after these years. My wife and I have watched them grow, way too fast but we certainly have Halloween 1993 as a special memory....only in a "weather family"!


DAVID

Santa Ana Winds=Wildfires=southern California in the fall and early winter. High pressure over the Rocky Mountain States creates an easterly wind over southern California. (Remember winds blow clockwise around high pressure). The easterly winds go up the Santa Ana mountain range and then the air descends and blows hard into southern California. When air goes up, the parcels of air expand and cool. When the air parcels descend they compress, heat up and dry. It is the hot and dry wind that creates perfect conditions for wildfires and is the recipe for disaster.

Now you have to keep in mind this is all part of a natural process in that part of the country. Wet periods grow new brush. Dry periods dry the landscape and then the Santa Ana's burning the land. Problem is man has moved into these areas that go through the process putting lives at risk.

In a way it is comparable to the population boom along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A tremendous increase in the number of people that now live along the coasts are at a much higher risk from hurricanes.

Low pressure in the upper atmosphere usually represent colder air. That's exactly what is sitting over our area. A pocket of cold air. In fact this pocket of cold air has broken away from the main jet stream and is what we call in the weather business "closed off". Meaning just what it says. It has broken off from the main flow and is now sitting right over the area. This is a stable weather situation that traps moisture in the lowest levels of the atmophere. Final result, clouds, chilly temperatures, and off and on periods of misty rain.

October has been very summery up to this point. A cool front will start a change TONIGHT! This front, like the last cool front, will only bring a day or two of cooler weather. But all indications are a significant cold front will move through early next week and give a nice stretch of "normal October weather". I am also expecting some heavy rain by late Sunday night into Monday. Certainly a nice change.

And remember, fall is our second severe weather season. Typically we see the stronger storms in November and not October. But with the unseasonably hot conditions and fall trying to take over, something has to give.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue for the rest of the week. The warm weather is a preview of the fall into the winter. WARMER THAN AVERAGE...IS MY PREDICTION FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER.
The weather pattern will be active over the next few days here in Mississippi. We are also getting close to our fall severe weather season so I will be analyzing each weather maker closely as it nears. Rain chances increase Wednesday as a surge of moisture comes off of the Gulf of Mexico. Some pretty good downpours will be around during the afternoon. A severe weather outbreak looks to be in the offing for the southern plains as a strong front moves into that area. Strong atmospheric forcing is not expected here so no widespread severe weather is expected. Wednesday afternoons rains will move to our east at night putting us in dry air until the actual front moves through late Thursday night. It looks like a line of thunderstorms will accompany the front late Thursday night. As this line moves through there could possibly be some gusty winds especially over east Mississippi.

Bottom line, 2 chances for rain this week with the threat for severe weather very low.

Finally, a change in the summery weather pattern. Starting Tuesday night drier and cooler air will begin to invade Mississppi. The cool air will not surge into the state but will move in gradually as northwest flow across the central states pushes the air our way. Now this upcoming weather change is nothing unusual for this time of the year. It's just that it has been so darn hot of late. The weather for the end of this week will be more typical for this time of the year. So enjoy it!

A couple of things on my mind tonight. First of all, you can expect very warm weather for October for the next 2 weeks. I am expecting highs and lows to average 5-8 degrees above average (at least that much) through the middle of the month. It looks like a high pressure ridge will control the weather over much of the eastern two thirds of the county during the period.

If you have been watching my weather broadcasts this week I have been talking about another "upper level low" over the gulf. This is a non-tropical weather system with a cold core. The low will be moving to the west northwest over the next few days and could brush the gulf coast areas with quite a bit of rain. As far as we are concerned, the increase in humidity combined with above average temperatures will provide the right environment for pop up showers Thursday and Friday and possible into the weekend.

This system will not get strong quickly and worst case scenario, possible be named as a sub-tropical weather system. Nothing more than some much needed rain for us...if the rain develops this far inland.