HEAVY FOOD WARNING THURSDAY...Turkey aroma developing in the morning with increasing warmth from the heavy. Turkey and ham breaking out by early afternoon with heavy drifts of mashed potatoes and some slippery spots from cranberry sauce. Flash floods of gravy are also possible so watch out for over flow on your plate. While food will taper off by late afternoon watch out for pumkin, pecan and cherry pie by evening. HAPPY THANKSGIVING

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches I am expecting 2 bouts of stormy weather through Sunday. The first will be on Wednesday afternoon/evening (Thanksgiving Eve) and the second will occur over the weekend. A strong cold front will sweep across the south Wednesday afternoon through early Thanksgiving morning. Here in Mississippi I am expecting the front to move through central Mississippi during the evening hours on Wednesday the 21st. Heavy showers with downpours and a few thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible as the front sweeps across the state. The rain should be east of the Jackson area by Thanksgiving morning with much colder weather for the holiday.

I am expecting a second storm and possibly a stronger storm to threaten the area late Saturay and into Sunday. Travelers returning home to Mississippi should be aware of the potential for heavy rain and severe weather late in the upcoming weekend. How the storm evolves and the path it takes will determine how much rain and if we will get any severe storms. STAY TUNED!

It looks like some nice rains will be moving across the southern states and in particular the drought stricken parts of the south late Wednesday as a strong front moves across the region. Now don't get me wrong. Any rain is appreciated and much needed but the long range forecast is still not predicting a rainly pattern. In fact we could see the drought worsen to the west into Mississippi if we don't start getting some rain here.

Through Tuesday November 13th here are some of the rain deficits in the hardest hit areas of Alabama and north Georgia.

Tuscaloosa -28.24"
Birmingham -21.58"
Montgomery -14.88"
Huntsville -24.22"
Atlanta -18.24"
Chatanooga -17.99"
Anniston -29.15

In Mississippi:

Jackson -18.14
Meridian -20.06
Tupelo -10.53"
Greenville -14.99"
Greenwood -8.26"
Hattiesburg -12.69
Vickburg -25.96"

It's in the books, our first freeze of the year was recorded over much of the area. The low this morning in Jackson was 32 degrees. This is our earliest freeze in 6 years. In the years 2002-2006 our first freeze occurred no earlier than November 17th with our first freeze in 2004 recorded on December 3rd. In 2001 our first freeze was on October 29th. Our average first freeze is November 9th. Some stats for you. Over the last 10 years 6 of 10 first freezes were after the 9th of November. Over the last 20 years, 12 of 20 first freezes were after the average. Nothing too far out of the ordinary there.

The average is a climatic average over the last 30years. It is the date over those 30 years that is the statistical average date for a first freeze. Right now the data for calculating the average is from the period 1970-2000. If my memory serves me correctly, the average first freeze for the period 1960-1990 was around November 3rd.

There is now question when you look at the weather data over the last 30-40 years that the cold weather season is shorter here in Mississippi than it used to be pre 1950. Is that global warming? You can really make a positive correlation to that data but it certainly can be argued!

Our average first frost: November 1
Our average first freeze: November 9

These averages are for the Jackson area and vary some across the region. Now is a good time to talk about a frost and a freeze as the coldest air of the season is on the way and will arrive Tuesday. By late Tuesdy night and Wednesday morning the center of the cold air mass will be near and will stick around through Thursday morning. Over the last 5 years our first freeze has been after the 9th of November. Scattered frost is possible for early Wednesday and looks to be a good bet for Thursday morning. Areas north and east of Jackson will see the coldest readings.

So get ready, check your heaters, get your pets needs taken care of and protect those plants.

Temperatures will moderate by this weekend.