Well, its vacation time for me. I am headed with my son to northern New Mexico near Red River and Mount Wheeler (tallest point in NM about 13,100 feet above sea level.) We will be on a 45 mile hike with about 10 others. The hike is over 5 days. Not only am I looking forward to being out the the wilderness but I can wait to enjoy 70 degree highs and night time temps down near 40 degrees!

I remain optimistic about the rain chances early next next week while I am gone. See you when I get back!

DAVID

OK, I was off for a few days and I saw there were some nasty storms
around the region...wind and rain. Unfortunately for most of the
Jackson area it was more wind than rain. I had a paltry.1" of rain at my house. Greenwood and parts of the delta had up to 4". Give me a break...this is hard to watch when we need the rain so badly around the metro area!
South Mississippi saw some nice rain too! Like I said last week...it is
hard to watch.

Hang in there though we may see a weather pattern
adjustment next week allowing for GOOD rain chances through much of
next week. The high pressure system that has been sitting over our
region should drift to the eat a bit allowing the moist flow that has
affected Texas to influence our weather.

Today is also the astronomical start to summer. The sun is at its highest
point in the sky with the sun's direct rays over the Tropic of
Cancer (23.5 degrees N latitude) today.

I don't know about you, but it gets old watching it rain all around us day in and day out. There was another nice round of rain this evening to our west over in Louisiana. While the "blocking pattern" that has kept us dry does show signs of weakening. There are still no real signs that an abundance of rain is on the way. Fortunately though, upper 90s are not in the forecast and lower to middle 90s are. Hey, it not as hot.

Friday will offer a couple of rogue late day thunderstorms but it the only the lucky few that see this type of isolated rain. Rain chances do not look good voer the weekend adn now long range models are iffy on rain chances next week. Sometimes it tough to get rid of what you have...DROUGHT!

Pray for rain...we need it!
DAVID

Obviously the drought is THE weather story. I continue to pour over the weather records at Jackson to look for new information. Today I came across the fact that as of right now this is the 3rd driest year on record. Through mid June the only other 2 years that were drier were 1942 with 13.06 inches of rain and 1992 with 12.96" of rain. So far this year, our total is at 13.55".

Through the end of June the driest year is 1942 with a rainfall total of 15.37". You can do the math but we have a real shot of seeing the driest first 6 months of the year here at Jackson. Jackson weather history (when records start) begins in 1896.

As I mentioned yesterday it does look like an increased chance of hit and miss thunderstorms by early next week. But no real break in the weather pattern.

I was in Gulfport this past weekend for my daughter's fast pitch
softball tournament. About 3PM Saturday a huge thunderstorm came
rumbling through followed by 4 hours of steady rain. It was great to
see! Too bad it wasn't the Jackson area! There are spots in south
Mississippi that have seen some rain so the drought is not as bad down
there. In fact, on the trip down highway 49 it was a brown ground to
aboutHattiesburg and then south of there greener.

The
prognosis is not good for this week. Dry and air that is not as hot
will begin to move into the state on Tuesday. As this happens a few
late afternoon storms could pop up in south Mississippi but in the
Jackson area, north and east where the drought is the worst, it does
not look like there will be any rain. Highs will go from the upper 90s
to the lower 90s by mid-week.

I see no significant chance for
rain all this week. The yearly rainfall shortfall is nearing 15 inches
in the Jackson area. 12-13 inches since the first of March!

Now, I don't want to get every ones
hopes up but in the long range for the last 10 days of June there could
be the chance for some rain. Certainly not drought busting but at least
an opportunity for some rain.

David

Well, I guess with all this early summer heat and dryness, it begs the question will we see a 100 degree day in the Jackson area this summer? At this point I would say yes! ARGH! Now wait a minute...this is not as easy as you might think. 100 degree days are NOT common place every year here in Mississippi. It depends on several factors. The biggest two are how dry it is and the position of the high pressure system over the southeast. Hot and dry weather browns the grass and bakes the ground. This allows for the ground to absorb more heat from the sun. This helps to increase the high temperature by a couple of degrees. If the high is close enough to Mississippi it keeps clouds to a minimum. MORE BAKING SUNSHINE! This leads to what I call the "brown grass effect". Increasing the high temperature because of local dry conditions. So the way it looks, yes to 100.

Here are some stats.
YEAR 100 degree days
2000 20
2001-04 0
2005 1
2006 6

In the 1990's...1990, 1995, `1998 and 1999 had at least 1 100 degree day.
in the 1980's...1980 (29days), 1981, 1986, 1987 & 1988 had at least 1 100 degree day.

The decade with the most 100 degree days is the 1950s with 82 days.

A hot summery weather pattern is taking a firm hold of our weather. Highs will consistently top out at or above 90 degrees now. The high pressure ridge that I referred to in my summer forecast discussion is doing exactly what I thought it would do. Strengthen over the southeast creating hot and continued very dry conditions. That said, there could be just enough wind flow off the gulf later this week to offer a late afternoon downpour in a few spots. In the summer, the moist flow off of the gulf converges inland to create enough lift to trigger afternoon thunderstorms. This is known as a "sea breeze front". The area of storms moves to the northwest in the late afternoon and arrives in the Jackson area between 4-6PM if it does not fall apart first..

I was going to issue my forecast/expectations for the hurricane season today to coincide with the start of the 2007 season. But if the National Hurricane Center is going to put names on storms with the likes of Andrea and Barry we will have no problem attaining their forecast of 17 named storms.

I was baffled that Andrea was given storm status. By the time the NHC named the storm the storm was on the down turn. High surf the previous 2 days was worse before the storm was given a name. Should not have been named.

Now Barry, no organization and just an area of heavy rain. Wind shear is very strong over the storm as an unseasonably strong trof approaches the storm. This is just a rainstorm with no tropical characteristics. Should not be named.

In my opinion, the Hurricane Center seems to name the storm if it is going to have an affect on land. While that may heighten interest/awareness in the storm. Scientifically speaking it is not right. So the score is NHC-2 and David-0. No storms should have been named yet!

Anyway here is my outlook for the season. I do concur that the season will be more active than last year. I am looking for an average to slightly above average season with about 12-14 named storms. Of course the more important question is where will these storm go. At this time a large and persistent area of high pressure could dominate the southeastern states. This could offer the gulf coast protection from tropical activity. The high could steer storms across the southern gulf towards south Texas or Mexico or even keep them in the Atlantic east of the U.S. (This same high is why I am forecasting a hot and dry summer...see my earlier blog..)

In any event you can count on Me, kn and Jennifer to keep you updated with the very latest information.