For the first time in 13 years the month of June was hotter than the month of July thanks to all the rain we had. 7 inches plus of rain for July helped keep the average temperature for the month below average. Hence the title above....COOL. It was also our wettest July since 2002. We sure needed the rain because the first 6 months of the year were the driest on record. Summer is certainly not over and I'll have my forecast for August tomorrow. Hint: Find away to keep cool!

While at this time there is NOT a threat of a named tropical system forming I am watching with interest a large "blob" of moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. A serious flood threat looks to be in the offing for Texas....again! First off, upper level winds still appear to be too strong to allow a tropical storm develop. Here's what is going on...an upper level storm over Texas is pulling gulf moisture from the southern and western gulf to the north. This air is very moist. Over the next few days this moisture will continue to funnel to the north and I think it will eventually over spread our area on Friday. I am expecting the wet air mass to hang around through the weekend. Extremely high humidity will over our area will kick off downpours with some isolated thunderstorms. Stay tuned, depending on how weather systems move we could be in for some locally heavy rainfall Friday through the weekend.

Unusual weather events continue to unfold! All indications are the jet stream will continue to be unseasonably far to the south for late July. It is looking like a pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere will meander over the south. Cold air at cloud levels is very favorable for afternoon thunderstorm development....possibly "hailers". In the summer surface temps rise to near 90 which forces the cold air aloft to sink. In turn...surface air rises rapidly and forms thunderstorms. By mid next week we could see active afternoon thunderstorms across the south. Temps may not be all that hot either.

So to recap....dry and comfortable air comes in for the weekend into early next week with the threat of an active thunderstorm period by the middle of next week. Temps look to be below average with rainfall above average.

Friday evening/night is looking to be quite stormy as a strong, at least for July anyway, cold front pushes its way north to south across the state. The front will clear the southern parts of Mississippi late Saturday with northerly breezes pushing in drier air. Humidity levels will drop and become quite comfortable by Sunday.

What gives? In the summer the jet stream is typically way to our north over the northern U.S. or southern Canada. The jet stream is important because it steers weather systems across the globe. This weekend, the jet will dive deep into Dixie. Not only triggering thunderstorms but pushing dry air from Canada this way. Now, it is July and true "cool" air just doesn't make it to the southern states. But the humidity will drop to comfortable levels. Every few years we see the jet dive into our area in the middle of summer, it brings some terrific weather to the folks to our north. So enjoy the drier air when we get it.

As summer began back in June it was hot and dry. The grass was brown
and it looked like 100 degree temperatures were on the way. It was one
of the driest first 6 months of the year here in Jackson. Now...there
has been rain around EVERYDAY in July and the rain gauge has measured
just over 6 inches of rain for July. What a turn around! The
Mississippi landscape is green and lush. No way we can hit 100 degrees
now! Right? I really thought back in June a 100 degree day this summer
was a done deal. But the weather pattern shifted just enough to allow
the rains to our west to move into the state. I can not remember a
summer with the grass this green that we hit 100 degrees. What does
green grass have to do with it you ask? You need your "science cap" for this one. The key word is EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
By definition this is the process of water being transferred from the
earth's surface to the atmosphere. Simply put its it the water from the
ground and vegetation
evaporating into the air. This is a "cooling " process and will help
keep the temperature down, a little bit anyway. It is enough to keep a
very
hot day from becoming a 100 degree day. Hence, the brown ground rule.
When the landscape is brown and dry.....no evaporation...no "cooling"
and 100 degrees is possible.

OUTLOOK...NO 100 anytime soon.

Finally....RAIN! So far, just about every day in July has offered a daily dose of rain. Since last week we have cut the rainfall shortfall from 16+" to about 13.5". I know it is still a big number but hey, we are headed in the right direction.

It is amazing to me to see the plants and flowers respond to the rain. It seems the water we give them just keep them alive. Rain water makes them thrive and grow.

The weather pattern looks to remain active through the weekend into early next week. the storm track has shifted way to the south and is allowing stormy disturbances to cross the area. Look for some big rain to be around the area Friday and Saturday.

Hurray! It finally rained at my house a good .5 and I'll take it. That pesky low spinning over Texas remains there and central Mississippi can continue to expect more late day downpours into the weekend.

A few of you have sent me notes on how the rain has missed your house as well. Rest assured you were not alone but today was a nice widespread rain (except for area northeast of Jackson to the north of Carthage) Please know there are no "secret" forces at work keeping the rain away from particular spots. The late day rains are totally random each day. A crap shoot if you will. Who knows maybe the rain today will break the dry spell...for a little while any way.

Here is what I am thinking for the next week....scattered afternoon/evening downpours should remain in the forecast until early next week. By the middle of next week a hot dome of air will try to build into Mississippi. This could boost highs back up into the middle 90s under sunny skies. Late days rain will become scarce once again. Stay tuned.

Hit and miss downpours continue to pop up each day but there is still
very little "overall relief" to the drought that is impacting our area.
I came across some more interesting stats on the record dry weather.
The period January 1 - June 30 is the driest on record at Jackson. Our
2007 total rainfall is 14.79". 1942 was the driest first half of the
year up until this year (15.37") The period March1 to June 30 is also
the driest on record. 6.73" of rain in that period smashes the old dry
spell record of 9.04" in 1985.

At my house the rain has been a no show! Downpours have missed my neighborhood and my March through June total is closer to 5.5" of rain. I gave up on watering my lawn
about 3 weeks ago. Anyone who knows me knows how much I like to work in
the yard and it really hurts to see my lawn all brown. I have been keeping
my plants and flowers watered so my beds look good.

Hit and miss downpours remain in the forecast but I am concerned some dry air
from the east could choke off the threat for the afternoon downpours.
This would especially be true for our eastern counties and could begin
on the 4th of July.

I hope you have a nice holiday!
DAVID

Well I made it! We hiked 50+ miles! What gorgeous country in north central New Mexico. Above 13,000 feet there was still snow on the ground and I had a chance to walk though it on our way to Mount Wheeler (13,100 feet--the highest point in New Mexico). I think it was on Wednesday that there was a little new snow on top of Wheeler. My son and I were fascinated by the breath taking views and wild game. We saw: rams, deer, mountain goats, sheep, large herds of elk moving straight up the mountain slopes, antelope, buffalo and some other assorted small game. WOW! This was an experience I will not soon forget.

On our way back we saw some of the flooding first had in northeast Texas...it was bad over there.

I know there has been some rain around while I was gone. But not at my house! My grass is brown. Thanks to my wife for keeping my plants and flowers alive while I was gone. 2 important notes on the dry weather. This has been the driest January 1 through June 30th and the dries March 1 through June 30th on record at Jackson.

Rain chances look pretty good Monday evening into Tuesday as a weak front will be in the area. The front will act as a focus to trigger afternoon/evening storms. While I think the storms will be numerous there will probably be areas that don't see much rain.

The 4th of July into the weekend looks like typical July with highs in the 90s, high humidity and a few late day storms around the area.

Be safe for the Fourth!

DAVID