Remember, it is Mississippi and we still have plenty of hot and humid days to go through in September. But there are signs on the weather map that the change of seasons is on the horizon. Cooler air can be found in Canada and long range forecasts show that cooler air trying to push southward into the U.S. Don't be surprised if we see sort of change in the next 7-12 days. September fronts typically bring some rain followed by drier air and comfortable temperatures at night and in the early morning hours. September's average highs are still well up in the 80s.

By the way, it looks like August 2007 will be the 4th hottest on record at JAckson.

DAVID

A total lunar eclipse begins at 3:51AM Tuesday morning. The moon will be in the earth's full shadow starting at 4:52AM through about 6:22AM. With sunrise around 630 the end part of the eclipse will be interrupted by day light.

There are usually 2 lunar eclipses each year. A lunar eclipse occurs during the full moon. The moon passes through the earth's shadow creating the eclipse. Since the moon is lit up by reflective light (the sun shining on it)even when it is in full shadow the moon will appear a reddish color. Red light from the sun makes its way to the sun around the earth. How red the will appear is unpredictable from eclipse to eclipse.

Again,
START: 3:51AM
TOTAL STARTING AT 4:52 AM
TOTAL ENDS AT 6:22AM

For the first time in about a month I had a good rain at my house. While the downpours/thunderstorms were isolated Friday evening, it is all part of a slowly changing weather pattern. Hot high pressure is finally weakening and moving to the east. This will set up a southeast flow of air which will allow for "seasonal chances" for late day downpours/thunderstorms. I'm also thinking we are done with 100 degree temps for the summer. Highs over the next week should be a little more seasonal. The average high is 90-92 this time of the year.

The high of 101 Wednesday in Jackson tied the record high set in 1990. 21 of the 22 days in August have had highs over 95 and the average high temperature for the month so far is 98.6 degrees. WHEWEEEE! And it is not just here in Mississippi but in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and North Carolina. I am expecting 100 degree weather through Friday and then some subtle changes for the weekend and possibly some significant changes by the end of the month.

Here is what I expect to happen. The hot hot pressure system that intensified this week will hold strong into Friday and Saturday. Over the weekend the high will weaken some and begin to build eastward into the Atlantic where it will establish its position as the "Bermuda High". This will create an east to southeast flow over the South. The added humidity, cloud cover and the the threat of a late day storm will lower highs to near the late August average of 90-92.

Toward the end of next week, it looks like some cooler air will try to push a front to the south. While it is still too early for a big cool down. the front could offer an increased rain threat by Labor Day Weekend.

Everything is on track as Dean will make landfall near the northern border of Belize around dawn Tuesday morning. The storm will weaken considerably while over land most of the day Tuesday before moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday. The storm will then head into Mexico on Wednesday. No impact on our weather.

The good news for our area is that the forecast we had back on Wednesday continues to look good! Hot high pressure that has controlled our weather will continue to do so. The large area of high pressure will suppress Dean way to our south.

Dean continues to be powerful late Saturday with max winds of 150mph in the hurricane eyewall about 10 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds (74mph +) go out from the center about 50 miles or so. Jamaica is Dean's next target late on Sunday. It is possible that Dean will become a category 5 storm (winds 155mph +). Once Dean passes Jamaica he will target the Yucatan on Tuesday.

10PM UPDATE...MAX WINDS 145 forecast track the same....Jamaica-Yucatan-far southern Gulf of Mexico.

David

An added note this evening. Dean is on a VERY similar path to Allen of 1980 (south Texas hit) and Gilbert 1988 (south Texas hit).

Here is a list of the most intense hurricanes on record( lowest barometrci pressure):
1. Wilma 2005
2. Gilbert 1988
3. "Labor Day" 1935
4. Rita 2005
5. Allen 1980
6. Katrina 2005
7. Camille 1969
7. (Tie) Mitch 1998
9. Ivan 2004
10 Janet 1955

Dean has become a Category 4 hurricane Friday evening with top winds of
135mph. Conditions favor further strengthening over the weekend. Some of the most
powerful hurricanes on record have come in August and in the Caribbean
Sea. Dean looks to be on his way to this list. Dean storm will threaten
Jamaica on Sunday and could be a strong 4 or a 5 on the Saffir Simpson Scale .

A couple of observations. Even if Dean gets
stronger, he is still pretty far away and it is hard for hurricanes to
maintain their powerful status (CAT 4 or 5) for too long. Usually about 2 days is average for a storm to be at its peak. Then, they begin to come down in strength some. So hopefully Dean will be weaker when he approaches the Yucatan on Monday. Even Katrina, as big and nasty as she was, was losing strength after being a CAT 5.

My forecast thinking is pretty much the same as the last 2 days. Hot high pressure over our
area should protect us and steer the storm towards Mexico or south
Texas. Should the high weaken some, Dean could certainly turn to the
northwest a little more than I anticipate but that would probably increase the treat for
the Texas area and not here. Anyway, still plenty of time to watch
weather features. Ken will be in theis weekeend.

Just remember, now is a good time to make sure you are PREPARED. Just in case a storm heads our way this hurricane season.

Our streak of 100 degree days has ended at 6 with a high of 99 today.
Only three times in the last 25 years have we had streaks 5 or more 100
degree days in a row. The years are 2007, 2000 and 1988. So about once
every 8 to 10 years do we see a heatwave like this. Hot weather will
continue with highs in the middle to upper 90s.

My thinking on Dean remains
the same. It still looks like highs pressure over the southern state
will steer the storm well to our south. Keep checking back though as
this will be a powerful storm in the Caribbean.

Gilbert of 1988 did indeed have a similar track. Gilbert is one of the strongest hurricanes on record.

Dean continues to grow in strength late Wednesday night in the Atlantic Ocean. All signs point to Dean getting quite a bit stronger and possibly turning into a major hurricane. It looks like a high pressure ridge will remain strong over the southern states. As long as this remains true Dean will not be able to turn to the north and will continue to chug off to the west. Obviously this scenario could change by early next week but to be honest the hot high pressure over the region is very well entrenched over the South.

Remember, hurricanes move about in "rivers of air". The storms are pushed around the tropics by other larger weather features. The same high I talked about above is also pushing Erin to the west away from us. So it may be unbearably hot and dry but right now with Dean lurking in the Atlantic...that is a good thing!

Keep an eye on Dean over the next few days as the Caribbean Sea has produced some of the strongest hurricanes on record in mid to late August over the years.

I still think we could see a weak area of low pressure form in the Gulf of Mexico. As I eluded to yesterday we are still under the protection of high pressure here in Mississippi so the system will head towards the Texas coast. More rain for TEXAS!

There is still plenty of time to watch Dean out in the Atlantic. By the weekend we should know if its the Carrabean or up the east coast.

Lastly, we hit 106 today, our hottest temperature since we had a 107 in 2000. The heat has peaked and temperatures will come down some.....still very hot and uncomfortable!

I have an eye on a batch of moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It looks to me that this area could turn into a minimal tropical storm on Tuesday. The good news for our area is that this huge dome of hot air that is over us will protect us from the system moving this way. Instead it should move towards the Texas coast by late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Way out in the Atlantic there is a new tropical depression. This system shows promise of intensifying as well. Since this depression is so far out there is plenty of time to watch it. Remember you can go to hurricane central at any time on wapt.com for the latest information.

And let's not forget Hawaii...Hurricane Flossie will pass just to the south of the big island of Hawaii sometime late Tuesday.

Today, Friday the 10th of August was our hottest day in 7 years. With a high of 103 today it was the hottest day since 9/4/00! The 103 broke the record high for today by 1 degree. I am forecasting highs of 102 both Saturday and Sunday. The record on Saturday is 103 and 104 on Sunday. Both were set in 1954.

With a no moon visible in the sky there will be excellent viewing of the Perseid meteor shower this weekend. Peak will be late Sunday night to dawn Monday morning with about 60 meteors per hour. You should pick out a dark patch of sky away from light pollution for the best view. Also, Mars, the red dot in the northeastern sky will be visible at the same time so enjoy.

This is a great time to address an e-mail hoax that is going around.; There is an e-mail that says Mars will be at its closet point to earth later this month and Mars will appear as large as our moon. THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE AND A HOAX. Mars did make its closest pass to earth several years ago. It was brighter but still a small "star" in the sky. Do not pay any attention to the e-mail should you receive. HAPPY METEOR WATCHING!

DAVID

To review my thoughts on this topic please go back and read my posts dated June 8th and July 16th. So far we have come up short of the 100 degree mark in in central Mississippi. I have consistently forecasting upper 90s through today with highs near 100 Friday-Sunday. So far temperatures have struggled to climb past the upper 90s here while just to our east Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery and Atlanta have all exceeded 100 degrees. All of the South is under the influence of the same weather features so you would not expect much difference. But there is a difference. The ground is drier and browner to our east where the drought is worse. Remember, we were blessed with over 7 inches of rain in the month of July and that "greened up" the state. When the grass is green there is some energy used for evaporation which is a cooling process. Our green grass is helping keep the temperature down just a tad. Now I know 98 is hot and it feels hotter than that with the humidity. With the weather pattern not changing and the heat forecast to persist, the central Mississippi landscape will dry, allowing us to threaten the century mark. No matter what...it is hot and it looks like a long August!

We are coming into the most active time period for tropical activity ( mid August-Mid September)and so far there are no signs of a busy season. From one of my earlier blogs you might recall that Andrea and Barry were very marginal tropical systems...perhaps not even deserving of a name. Chantal, the third named storm of the season was a weak tropical storm well east of the northeaster coast of the U.S.

As the summer unfolds several factors seem to be coming into play that could perhaps make the upcoming season not as active as the experts have predicted. 1.) The Atlantic Ocean temperatures have cooled a little. 2.) The air over the tropics is drier and more stable (not conducive to cloud development) than expected. 3.) Upper level winds are stronger than anticipated so that when some clouds do try to grow the strong winds rip the clouds apart.

The experts at Colorado State have downed the forecast prediction from 17 to 15 named storms. 8 hurricanes and 4 major are now apart of their forecast. Down from a forecast of 10 hurricanes and 5 major.

Stay tuned! I will keep you up to date.

DAVID

There will be opportunities for some hit and miss downpours Sunday and Monday and it will be hot, but it WILL get hotter. This week promises to be a brutally hot week and possibly our hottest stretch of weather this summer. A large and strong area of hot air (High Pressure Ridge)will strengthen right over the South. Highs will run 96-101 Tuesday through at least Friday. More importantly the humidity will combine with the heat to make it fell like 102-107 during the hottest times of the day. Rain chance look slim for most of the week so with the lack of clouds and "cooling" afternoon storms it will be very hot for a long period of time. You'll see the temperature reach 90 by 10:30 or 11AM and stay above 90 through 7PM and of course it will fell hotter than that. Nighttime temperatures will be uncomfortable as well.

I'll have some words on the "quiet " tropics tomorrow.
DAVID

First off, NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT in the Gulf of Mexico. The area of clouds has fallen apart. Good news! But man is it going to be hot. On Saturday look for temperatures to reach 90+ by 11AM. Stay cool and have a great weekend.
DAVID

Clouds continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The longer the clouds stay there, the more of a chance for some sort of weak development. That said, it looks like the moisture may move over Florida by Saturday preventing future development. I will keep watching the situation.

Now the heat. Very HOT. Rain chance look minimal the next couple of days but a passing storm could pop up in 1 or 2 places. High will be in the middle and upper 90s.

All indications are that the summer heat and humidity will be at full tilt for August. I am expecting a large area of hot air to form over the central U.S. providing blistering August heat for much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Here in the south that means highs well up in the 90s with oppressive humidity making it fell even higher. Climatologically this should be the hottest stretch of summer weather and it looks like it willbe.

I am watching with growing interest a stalled front over the northern Gulf of Mexico. When fronts stop moving this time of the year, clusters of storms can grow and possibly turn into something tropical. This usually turns into a heavy rain threat. Since the storm would be close to land it would not have time to gain much strength if any. Right now it is a wait and see game. But I can tell you the forecast models do want to bring in a lot of rain to the central gulf coast Friday into Saturday. At this point it will probably mean just a greater chance for thunderstorms for our area.